Posts Tagged ‘death’

Thoughts on Bird Flu

December 19, 2007

After having a rather nasty dream about Bird Flu, I woke up this morning feeling very unsettled.  Is it just me or is there actually more human to human transmissions going on? 

I am concerned and thinking about the clusters in Pakistan, China, Indonesia and other places.  I have to ask myself how much of this is going to be covered up?  Now we know that when there was human to human transmission before, it was covered up for almost a year.  So should things be different now?  I don’t think so.   

My dream was harsh, so harsh that I will not write about it but I knew when awakened this morning that H5N1 is on the move and no matter what we do we will not be able to stop it.  Can it be stalled for a bit ?  Yes, stop it? NO.  I also know it is mutating once again and getting easier to spread to humans.  Are we losing the battle here against bird flu?  Unfortunately, yes we are.   

I know there are surges in winter and that the death rate is claimed to be lower this year but I’m sorry, I do not hold any faith in the numbers being touted out there.  Too many people were buried before ever being tested. Too many people were not diagnosed with H5N1 though died from high fevers etc without the “OFFICIAL” notification of it being bird flu so these people cannot be on the list.  What is the real number of human deaths from bird flu? Who knows as we are being given the numbers to keep the count low and no one who dies from H5N1 or dies being suspected of it can be on the list as it is not “CONFIRMED.”  Should we believe the list? No and we should also not believe the current death rate of around 60 percent since it is probably higher.  Take 2007 with 77 confirmed cases and 51 deaths being reported.  Take 51 and divide it by 77 it equals to: 66 percent.  In 2006 there were 115 cases with 79 deaths which makes it 68.6 percent.  If you take Indonesia, the hardest hit country with 115 reported cases and 93 confirmed deaths, the calculated death rate is 80 percent.  Not pretty numbers.

 With the increased numbers of human clusters, sources being harder to track where the H5N1 came from and more human to human transmission of the illness, I believe that the current phase of pandemic should be raised to a level 4. But then again what do I know. Here I have resigned myself to the fact that the avian flu pandemic is going to happen.  I will watch the bloggers and science sites for information since they seem to be the most reliable sources for info out there.  Why are they reliable? Because they care and really want to help people to prepare for the H5N1 pandemic in order to save lives.  There is nothing else in it for them. I personally applaud them for their time, effort, honesty and endurance.   

Bird Flu, the real facts?

November 5, 2007

indonesia.jpg 

Picture of bird flu corpse being removed from the hospital

Today I was reading about yet another death in Indonesia from the bird flu and I had to ask myself what is going on?   

I started remembering the man in China who contracted the bird flu. Initially they did not know where he got it from. To this day we have not heard anything else about this man since.  I had to wonder what the actual death count of people from H5N1 is.  How many people fall into the category that they were buried before being tested or they do not know how they were infected. Next, all is quiet about the bird flu victims in the press and nothing more is written.   

Then I thought about how many wrong diagnoses there may have been, how many bird flu infected people were not reported? How many others exist than those verified with tests actually have had the bird flu and counted on the list?  I even remember reading somewhere that they thought some of the people who had SARS may have actually died from H5N1, but have heard no more about this either.  

 It really made me wonder what is actually occurring.  How much do we honestly not know?  It was possible to keep human to human transmission out of the press for over a year (even though people suspected it was such). So what else is currently being kept out of the press ?   

Now I have read a report where it can be passed human to human but only among close family members or people who are in really close contact.  Then I recalled hearing about two nurses who were suspected of getting the bird flu after taking care of a H5N1 infected patient. To date, I have heard no more about these nurses and what was their fate? 

So what is the real truth?  How many people have had the bird flu and been omitted from the list?  How many actual cases of human to human transmission have there really been?  I remember a few like the mother who held her H5N1 infected young child as they died and got it, the uncle who cared for his niece in Iraq and got the bird flu from her, a few reported clusters in Indonesia. But still we are led to believe that there is just one.  There are also the some cases of people who contracted the bird flu though there were no H5N1 cases reported in their area. Somehow, all of these articles seem to come out then get swept silently under the carpet very fast.   

Information is about this bird flu so scarce, scattered and censored.  Not a lot of what we read is the entire story.  I am glad there are many reporters out there who dig for the truth and try to get the news to the people.  Forget about causing a panic, just give us the facts.  Do I want to know what is really happening?  Yes, but will I? Probably not at least until the history books come out with its account of the facts on the H5N1.  However, even then we may never know the whole story.