Thoughts on Bird Flu

After having a rather nasty dream about Bird Flu, I woke up this morning feeling very unsettled.  Is it just me or is there actually more human to human transmissions going on? 

I am concerned and thinking about the clusters in Pakistan, China, Indonesia and other places.  I have to ask myself how much of this is going to be covered up?  Now we know that when there was human to human transmission before, it was covered up for almost a year.  So should things be different now?  I don’t think so.   

My dream was harsh, so harsh that I will not write about it but I knew when awakened this morning that H5N1 is on the move and no matter what we do we will not be able to stop it.  Can it be stalled for a bit ?  Yes, stop it? NO.  I also know it is mutating once again and getting easier to spread to humans.  Are we losing the battle here against bird flu?  Unfortunately, yes we are.   

I know there are surges in winter and that the death rate is claimed to be lower this year but I’m sorry, I do not hold any faith in the numbers being touted out there.  Too many people were buried before ever being tested. Too many people were not diagnosed with H5N1 though died from high fevers etc without the “OFFICIAL” notification of it being bird flu so these people cannot be on the list.  What is the real number of human deaths from bird flu? Who knows as we are being given the numbers to keep the count low and no one who dies from H5N1 or dies being suspected of it can be on the list as it is not “CONFIRMED.”  Should we believe the list? No and we should also not believe the current death rate of around 60 percent since it is probably higher.  Take 2007 with 77 confirmed cases and 51 deaths being reported.  Take 51 and divide it by 77 it equals to: 66 percent.  In 2006 there were 115 cases with 79 deaths which makes it 68.6 percent.  If you take Indonesia, the hardest hit country with 115 reported cases and 93 confirmed deaths, the calculated death rate is 80 percent.  Not pretty numbers.

 With the increased numbers of human clusters, sources being harder to track where the H5N1 came from and more human to human transmission of the illness, I believe that the current phase of pandemic should be raised to a level 4. But then again what do I know. Here I have resigned myself to the fact that the avian flu pandemic is going to happen.  I will watch the bloggers and science sites for information since they seem to be the most reliable sources for info out there.  Why are they reliable? Because they care and really want to help people to prepare for the H5N1 pandemic in order to save lives.  There is nothing else in it for them. I personally applaud them for their time, effort, honesty and endurance.   

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6 Responses to “Thoughts on Bird Flu”

  1. Thoughts on Bird Flu - Bird Flu Protection, Avian Flu News Says:

    […] story psychicinsights and posted with Elliott […]

  2. Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann Says:

    H5N1 avian flu: Spread by drinking water into small clusters:

    Human to human and contact transmission of influenza occur – but are overvalued immense. In the course of Influenza epidemics in Germany recognized clusters are rarely (9% of the cases in the season 2005).
    In temperate climates the lethal H5N1 avian flu virus will be transferred to humans strong seasonal in the cold via cold drinking water, as with the birds feb/mar 2006.
    Recent research must worry: So far the virus had to reach the bronchi and the lungs in order to infect humans. Now it infects the upper respiratory system (mucous membranes of the throat e.g. when drinking and mucous membranes of the nose and probably also the conjunctiva of the eyes as well as the eardrum e.g. at showering). In a few cases (Viet Nam, Thailand) stomach and intestine by the H5N1 virus were stricken but not the bronchi and the lungs. The virus might been orally taken up, e.g. when drinking contaminated water.
    The performance to eliminate viruses of the drinking water processing plants in Germany regularly does not meet the requirements of the WHO and the USA/USEPA. Conventional disinfection procedures are poor, because microorganisms in the water are not in suspension, but embedded in particles. Even ground water used for drinking water is not free from viruses.
    In temperate climates the strong seasonal waterborne infections like norovirus, rotavirus, salmonellae, campylobacter and – differing from the usual dogma – influenza are mainly triggered by drinking water dependent on the drinking water temperature (in Germany minimum feb/mar – maximum august). There is no evidence that influenza primary is transmitted by saliva droplets. In temperate climates the strong interdependence between influenza infections and environmental temperatures can’t be explained with the primary biotic transmission by saliva droplets from human to human with temperatures of 37.5°C. There must be an abiotic vehicle like cold drinking water. There is no other appropriate abiotic vehicle. In Germany about 98% of inhabitants have a central public water supply with older and better protected water. Therefore in Germany cold water is decisive to virulence of viruses.
    In hot climates/tropics the flood-related influenza is typical after extreme weather and natural after floods. Virulence of Influenza virus depends on temperature and time. If young and fresh H5N1 contaminated water from low local wells, cisterns, tanks, rain barrels or rice fields is used for water supply water temperature for infection may be higher as in temperate climates.

    Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann
    eMail soddemann-aachen@t-online.de
    http://www.dugi-ev.de/information.html
    Epidemiological Analysis:
    http://www.dugi-ev.de/TW_INFEKTIONEN_H5N1_20071019.pdf

  3. Holliegh Says:

    I do agree with U that the numbers are not accurate. But I have 2 say I do think they(the world gov’ts) are trying hard 2 prepare the populations 4 a pandemic. They have been telling everyone 4 years -“get ready, Prepare Now!” But their warnings are falling on deaf ears. People aren’t listening! They have this imaginary timeframe and so far the pandemic hasn’t hit so they believe it’s a conspiracy. I can’t believe the conspirancy theories going on about Bird Flu. How do these people come up with this nonsense? It is a very proven, scientific fact that pandemics happen and happen in incraments of about 30-40 yrs apart(give or take). If people could put aside their doubts of gov’t officials and actually do some research with their free time, they might learn something.

  4. psychicinsights Says:

    Hi Dipl.-Ing. Wilfried Soddemann,

    This is a concept that I had not thought of. It makes sense that the virus could spread through water. If I remember they said that chlorine would kill the virus in water but not all places have this. Thanks for the information, it is well appreciated.

    Thanks, Pernel

  5. dr david hill Says:

    Human-to-Human Transmitted Avian Flu – We have to move from a Cure Strategy to a Prevention Strategy before it is too late

    The strategy to prevent hundreds of millions of people dying (possibly over a billion) across the globe from the Avian Flu pandemic is totally flawed. This reliance that governments around the world have placed on predominantly vaccination (cure) only is a decision that history will record as one of the most insane and insidious decisions that has ever been taken by our political leaders. This assertion is based upon the facts that the eventual human-to-human killer virus that will emerge will be a new strain due to the fact that viruses constantly mutate and that owing to the initial incubation period for bird flu to show its ugly face, the virus will have spread like wildfire across the world through millions travelling internationally on a daily basis. Indeed, the avian flu strain is 20 times more virulent than the 1917/18 Spanish flu that killed between 50 million and 100 million people, but where this time, literally hundreds of millions will perish with this ill thought out strategy by our political leaders and governments. What should have been undertaken is that this highly contagious disease should have been addressed at its source (prevention) and where history again will confirm this eventual conclusion. Unfortunately by then, this terrible event will have taken place. Governments should rethink therefore before it is too late and adopt predominantly a ‘field’ strategy, for this is the only strategy that will work and stop the unimaginable happening. Governments have been warned continuously, but where they do not wish to listen due to the powerful overtones delivered to our political leaders by the giant pharmaceuticals in their quest for profits (or selfish greed dependant on which point-of-view one wishes to take). One has to remember also that since 2003 the human mortality rate through the bird flu virus has been 62% and where only 38 people on average out of every hundred has survived. Overall therefore it has to be said that these vast profit-orientated pharmaceutical companies have not stopped any of these deaths through their highly expensive drugs and where things will be no different when the eventual pandemic arrives. It is hoped therefore that for the sake of humankind, that a major sea change takes place within the thinking of our political leaders in 2008, from one of cure to prevention, and before time literally runs out on us all. Indeed, in 2007, CNN.Com determined that 87% of voters considered that health agencies would NOT be able to respond effectively if there was an avian flu pandemic. These are therefore not fear factors but factors derived from pure logic and facts determined by some of the leading authoritive thinkers on the subject.

    Dr David Hill

    World Innovation Foundation

    Bern, Switzerland

    UK Postal Address: P O Box A60, Huddersfield,

    HD1 1XJ, United Kingdom

    UK Tel:0044(0)1484 537181

    28th December 2007

  6. psychicinsights Says:

    Dr. Hill,
    Thank you for taking the time to write. I could not agree with you more about this. Money seems to rule everything and I believe it should be peoples lives that is the issue at stake here. As we all know, history repeats itself but does it need to? With the knowledge we have of this illness, prevention would be the best measure. Getting people to listen to make them aware of what is going on, to try and get the larger Government people on board to assist would be wonderful but it seems virtually impossible. I am not against the government, far from it, but I just wish there was a way to reach them, to cut through the red tape, to get them to understand this is not about politics, or money, or any of these things, it is about humanity, saving peoples lives and trying hard, very hard to make sure that every man, woman and child who can be reached is reached and that they understand what we are facing here. Helping people to make good choices and to try to stop the spread of this thing would make more sense than keeping it so low keyed that people do not know what is going on to try and prevent a panic. People will panic when it is in our backyards and they do not know how to deal with it. Educate them, give them the tools they need to be prepared and then do everything humanly possible to stop the spread of it. Your correct, prevention is the key here.

    Thanks,
    Pernel

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